Setting description

Hormone therapies more effective in all the biomarker signatures

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 334 1 3
TP53- 321 4 2
TP53+ 309 8 3
DRD+ 173 2 2
TEfus+ 252 3 4
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.668 0.002 0.006
TP53- 0.642 0.008 0.004
TP53+ 0.618 0.016 0.006
DRD+ 0.346 0.004 0.004
TEfus+ 0.504 0.006 0.008
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 1 202 186
TP53- 6 370 342
TP53+ 5 329 308
DRD+ 1 167 289
TEfus+ 6 297 297
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.002 0.404 0.372
TP53- 0.012 0.740 0.684
TP53+ 0.010 0.658 0.616
DRD+ 0.002 0.334 0.578
TEfus+ 0.012 0.594 0.594
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 87 18 26
TP53+ 11 3 6
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.174 0.036 0.052
TP53+ 0.022 0.006 0.012
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.308.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.272             0.030             0.026

The overall power was 0.668.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.668             0.000             0.000

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 334 1 3
futility 0 1 202 186
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 650 (493, 754) 354 (171, 533) 235 (132, 396) 236 (126, 408)
n_unique 650 (493, 754) 354 (171, 533) 235 (132, 396) 236 (126, 408)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 49 (22, 60) 60 (29, 60) 60 (28, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 38 (20, 55) 41 (19, 57) 39 (18, 57)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (1, 1) 0.02 (0, 0.21) 0.02 (0, 0.2)
rate 0.017 (0.016, 0.019) 0.011 (0.01, 0.013) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53- graduation 0 321 4 2
futility 0 6 370 342
max_n 0 87 18 26
n 365 (224, 424) 199 (85, 303) 108 (51, 255) 113 (51, 260)
n_unique 365 (224, 424) 199 (85, 303) 108 (51, 255) 113 (51, 260)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 48 (21, 60) 40 (21, 60) 41 (19, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (19, 54) 33 (20, 54) 31 (17, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.97, 1) 0.06 (0, 0.34) 0.06 (0, 0.36)
rate 0.017 (0.016, 0.019) 0.011 (0.01, 0.013) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TP53+ graduation 0 309 8 3
futility 0 5 329 308
max_n 0 11 3 6
n 302 (202, 356) 150 (64, 259) 104 (51, 223) 102 (51, 215)
n_unique 302 (202, 356) 150 (64, 259) 104 (51, 223) 102 (51, 215)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 51 (25, 60) 43 (20, 60) 48 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 38 (23, 55) 32 (18, 52) 35 (20, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 1 (0.94, 1) 0.09 (0, 0.42) 0.09 (0, 0.46)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.011 (0.009, 0.013) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027)
DRD+ graduation 0 173 2 2
futility 0 1 167 289
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 169 (123, 210) 74 (30, 128) 59 (28, 113) 77 (50, 138)
n_unique 169 (123, 210) 74 (30, 128) 59 (28, 113) 77 (50, 138)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (40, 60) 60 (39, 60) 50 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 45 (29, 57) 44 (32, 57) 34 (20, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.98 (0.82, 1) 0.16 (0.02, 0.58) 0.1 (0.01, 0.49)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.021 (0.017, 0.028) 0.023 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 252 3 4
futility 0 6 297 297
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 226 (153, 277) 108 (50, 185) 85 (50, 164) 84 (50, 161)
n_unique 226 (153, 277) 108 (50, 185) 85 (50, 164) 84 (50, 161)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 59 (28, 60) 51 (26, 60) 50 (24, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 40 (23, 56) 36 (23, 54) 36 (22, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.99 (0.9, 1) 0.1 (0.01, 0.48) 0.09 (0.01, 0.47)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.011 (0.009, 0.014) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 402 394 363
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 68 18 26
n 208 (124, 248) 122 (53, 205) 52 (20, 153) 46 (14, 150)
n_unique 208 (124, 248) 122 (53, 205) 52 (20, 153) 46 (14, 150)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.99 (0.88, 1) 0.12 (0.01, 0.48) 0.17 (0.02, 0.55)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.011 (0.009, 0.014) 0.023 (0.018, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03)
–+ graduation 0 416 425 417
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 66 15 25
n 53 (32, 73) 25 (9, 50) 19 (8, 52) 14 (5, 45)
n_unique 53 (32, 73) 25 (9, 50) 19 (8, 52) 14 (5, 45)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.87 (0.52, 0.99) 0.26 (0.05, 0.69) 0.29 (0.06, 0.64)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.023) 0.012 (0.007, 0.017) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037)
-+- graduation 0 407 366 345
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 3 6
n 135 (86, 161) 69 (26, 131) 39 (19, 108) 35 (11, 105)
n_unique 135 (86, 161) 69 (26, 131) 39 (19, 108) 35 (11, 105)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.97 (0.68, 1) 0.2 (0.02, 0.61) 0.22 (0.03, 0.62)
rate 0.017 (0.014, 0.02) 0.011 (0.008, 0.015) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.021 (0.017, 0.031)
-++ graduation 0 437 428 410
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 3 6
n 89 (52, 117) 41 (17, 85) 30 (14, 82) 24 (10, 76)
n_unique 89 (52, 117) 41 (17, 85) 30 (14, 82) 24 (10, 76)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.93 (0.64, 1) 0.22 (0.04, 0.59) 0.25 (0.04, 0.68)
rate 0.017 (0.014, 0.021) 0.011 (0.008, 0.015) 0.023 (0.018, 0.032) 0.023 (0.016, 0.033)
+– graduation 0 411 423 412
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 67 18 24
n 50 (29, 67) 20 (6, 43) 14 (5, 42) 19 (10, 50)
n_unique 50 (29, 67) 20 (6, 43) 14 (5, 42) 19 (10, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.83 (0.47, 0.98) 0.29 (0.08, 0.64) 0.28 (0.05, 0.64)
rate 0.018 (0.013, 0.022) 0.011 (0.007, 0.018) 0.023 (0.015, 0.038) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034)
+-+ graduation 0 423 448 442
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 65 15 23
n 46 (27, 63) 18 (7, 40) 14 (4, 38) 18 (10, 48)
n_unique 46 (27, 63) 18 (7, 40) 14 (4, 38) 18 (10, 48)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.83 (0.46, 0.98) 0.32 (0.06, 0.72) 0.26 (0.04, 0.66)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.023) 0.011 (0.006, 0.018) 0.022 (0.014, 0.039) 0.023 (0.017, 0.033)
++- graduation 0 422 399 406
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 2 6
n 39 (22, 51) 16 (5, 33) 12 (3, 32) 15 (8, 39)
n_unique 39 (22, 51) 16 (5, 33) 12 (3, 32) 15 (8, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.82 (0.46, 0.97) 0.34 (0.08, 0.73) 0.3 (0.06, 0.73)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.023) 0.011 (0.005, 0.019) 0.023 (0.013, 0.044) 0.023 (0.015, 0.036)
+++ graduation 0 446 446 445
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 9 2 6
n 35 (21, 50) 13 (5, 31) 11 (3, 30) 15 (7, 38)
n_unique 35 (21, 50) 13 (5, 31) 11 (3, 30) 15 (7, 38)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.78 (0.44, 0.96) 0.32 (0.09, 0.69) 0.31 (0.06, 0.68)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.023) 0.011 (0.005, 0.02) 0.023 (0.014, 0.043) 0.023 (0.015, 0.034)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 334 1 3
time_stop 38 (20, 55) 14 (14, 14) 15 (13, 17)
n_trt 296 (153, 504) 126 (126, 126) 123 (87, 133)
n_control 450 (213, 648) 158 (158, 158) 145 (137, 178)
post_p 1 (0.97, 1) 0.89 (0.89, 0.89) 0.96 (0.87, 0.96)
order 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 321 4 2
time_stop 37 (19, 54) 19 (13, 28) 20 (20, 20)
n_trt 158 (83, 287) 77 (63, 94) 74 (66, 82)
n_control 234 (116, 352) 109 (73, 164) 113 (111, 115)
post_p 0.99 (0.94, 1) 0.96 (0.93, 0.99) 0.96 (0.94, 0.98)
order 2 (1, 4) 1.5 (1, 2) 1.5 (1.1, 1.9)
TP53+ count 309 8 3
time_stop 39 (23, 55) 22 (17, 26) 25 (21, 30)
n_trt 128 (66, 224) 90 (58, 97) 103 (62, 105)
n_control 203 (115, 296) 95 (84, 134) 123 (104, 165)
post_p 0.99 (0.94, 1) 0.97 (0.87, 0.98) 0.98 (0.95, 0.99)
order 2 (1, 4) 1.5 (1, 2.3) 1 (1, 1.8)
DRD+ count 173 2 2
time_stop 45 (30, 57) 45 (44, 46) 34 (31, 38)
n_trt 78 (53, 115) 107 (93, 121) 96 (86, 105)
n_control 142 (96, 180) 150 (141, 160) 112 (95, 129)
post_p 0.98 (0.93, 1) 1 (0.99, 1) 0.93 (0.89, 0.96)
order 3 (1, 5) 3.5 (3.1, 3.9) 2.5 (2.1, 2.9)
TEfus+ count 252 3 4
time_stop 41 (24, 56) 34 (20, 35) 27 (22, 42)
n_trt 98 (57, 168) 95 (61, 103) 83 (54, 136)
n_control 164 (97, 234) 124 (83, 133) 126 (94, 192)
post_p 0.99 (0.95, 1) 0.97 (0.93, 0.98) 0.95 (0.93, 0.96)
order 3 (1, 5) 1 (1, 5) 1 (1, 1.7)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 1 202 186
time_stop 11 (11, 11) 41 (20, 57) 40 (20, 57)
n_trt 61 (61, 61) 172 (106, 293) 176 (94, 297)
n_control 134 (134, 134) 462 (218, 639) 457 (213, 643)
post_p 0.05 (0.05, 0.05) 0.02 (0, 0.09) 0.01 (0, 0.08)
order 1 (1, 1) 5 (2, 8) 4.5 (2, 8)
TP53- count 6 370 342
time_stop 18 (16, 24) 33 (20, 54) 31 (17, 51)
n_trt 77 (56, 94) 93 (53, 195) 87 (51, 191)
n_control 111 (98, 161) 215 (118, 362) 199 (104, 338)
post_p 0.22 (0.18, 0.26) 0.09 (0.01, 0.25) 0.09 (0.02, 0.22)
order 1 (1, 2.5) 3 (1, 6) 2 (1, 6)
TP53+ count 5 329 308
time_stop 23 (21, 35) 32 (18, 53) 35 (20, 52)
n_trt 89 (71, 114) 84 (51, 175) 82 (52, 162)
n_control 116 (103, 188) 170 (87, 283) 179 (101, 278)
post_p 0.24 (0.14, 0.26) 0.11 (0.02, 0.25) 0.1 (0.02, 0.23)
order 2 (1, 4.6) 3 (1, 7) 3 (1, 6)
DRD+ count 1 167 289
time_stop 29 (29, 29) 44 (32, 57) 34 (20, 52)
n_trt 54 (54, 54) 61 (50, 101) 66 (51, 107)
n_control 106 (106, 106) 139 (103, 177) 108 (60, 164)
post_p 0.1 (0.1, 0.1) 0.12 (0.03, 0.25) 0.11 (0.03, 0.24)
order 4 (4, 4) 4 (2, 8) 4 (1, 7)
TEfus+ count 6 297 297
time_stop 24 (20, 34) 36 (23, 54) 36 (22, 53)
n_trt 58 (52, 105) 73 (52, 131) 73 (52, 129)
n_control 102 (84, 128) 158 (99, 220) 150 (88, 228)
post_p 0.17 (0.14, 0.24) 0.11 (0.02, 0.25) 0.1 (0.02, 0.24)
order 2 (1, 6) 4 (1, 7) 4 (2, 7)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 334 334 334 334 334 334 334 334
time 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55) 38 (20, 55)
n 100 (50, 184) 22 (9, 47) 56 (23, 114) 37 (16, 76) 17 (6, 39) 16 (7, 37) 14 (5, 31) 11 (5, 28)
post_p 0.94 (0.63, 1) 0.78 (0.58, 0.97) 0.87 (0.61, 1) 0.81 (0.59, 0.98) 0.7 (0.57, 0.95) 0.73 (0.57, 0.96) 0.69 (0.56, 0.92) 0.67 (0.56, 0.91)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.006, 0.013) 0.009 (0, 0.015) 0.009 (0.005, 0.014) 0.009 (0.003, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.015) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.014)
Taxel_therapies count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14) 14 (14, 14)
n 53 (53, 53) 10 (10, 10) 31 (31, 31) 17 (17, 17) 6 (6, 6) 4 (4, 4) 5 (5, 5) 0 (0, 0)
post_p 0.67 (0.67, 0.67) 0.56 (0.56, 0.56) 0.78 (0.78, 0.78) 0.66 (0.66, 0.66) 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.58 (0.58, 0.58) 0.55 (0.55, 0.55) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.006 (0.006, 0.006) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.017 (0.017, 0.017) 0.015 (0.015, 0.015) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
time 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17) 15 (13, 17)
n 26 (15, 32) 6 (5, 11) 17 (8, 24) 8 (6, 18) 15 (10, 20) 15 (14, 17) 11 (9, 14) 11 (8, 13)
post_p 0.63 (0.57, 0.63) 0.62 (0.62, 0.63) 0.6 (0.56, 0.78) 0.57 (0.56, 0.76) 0.69 (0.62, 0.79) 0.62 (0.58, 0.79) 0.59 (0.58, 0.63) 0.63 (0.6, 0.69)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.006 (0.001, 0.007) 0 (0, 0.008) 0 (0, 0.006) 0 (0, 0.005) 0.01 (0.002, 0.011) 0.01 (0.009, 0.017) 0 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.012)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 321 321 321 321
time 37 (19, 54) 37 (19, 54) 37 (19, 54) 37 (19, 54)
n 97 (52, 177) 23 (9, 46) 17 (6, 39) 16 (7, 37)
post_p 0.94 (0.75, 1) 0.78 (0.7, 0.95) 0.74 (0.62, 0.93) 0.76 (0.64, 0.93)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.006 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Taxel_therapies count 4 4 4 4
time 19 (13, 28) 19 (13, 28) 19 (13, 28) 19 (13, 28)
n 48 (39, 54) 12 (9, 18) 6 (5, 15) 7 (4, 15)
post_p 0.86 (0.83, 0.92) 0.7 (0.63, 0.79) 0.67 (0.62, 0.8) 0.63 (0.61, 0.78)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.006, 0.01) 0.005 (0, 0.01) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0.003)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2
time 20 (20, 20) 20 (20, 20) 20 (20, 20) 20 (20, 20)
n 44 (36, 52) 8 (6, 10) 8 (8, 9) 14 (12, 15)
post_p 0.74 (0.71, 0.78) 0.76 (0.7, 0.8) 0.62 (0.61, 0.62) 0.75 (0.74, 0.76)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.007 (0.006, 0.007) 0 (0, 0) 0.009 (0.008, 0.011) 0.003 (0.001, 0.005)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 309 309 309 309
time 39 (23, 55) 39 (23, 55) 39 (23, 55) 39 (23, 55)
n 61 (29, 113) 38 (17, 73) 14 (6, 29) 11 (5, 28)
post_p 0.88 (0.72, 1) 0.83 (0.71, 0.98) 0.74 (0.62, 0.93) 0.73 (0.62, 0.91)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.013)
Taxel_therapies count 8 8 8 8
time 22 (17, 26) 22 (17, 26) 22 (17, 26) 22 (17, 26)
n 40 (28, 53) 24 (20, 36) 6 (5, 13) 4 (1, 9)
post_p 0.88 (0.73, 0.92) 0.78 (0.74, 0.88) 0.66 (0.63, 0.72) 0.62 (0.6, 0.73)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.007, 0.012) 0.006 (0.003, 0.014) 0 (0, 0.011) 0 (0, 0)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3
time 25 (21, 30) 25 (21, 30) 25 (21, 30) 25 (21, 30)
n 36 (22, 54) 16 (12, 32) 15 (11, 17) 18 (8, 18)
post_p 0.83 (0.76, 0.84) 0.72 (0.71, 0.76) 0.88 (0.68, 0.92) 0.8 (0.79, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.005 (0.001, 0.008) 0.009 (0.002, 0.011) 0.004 (0.001, 0.013) 0.003 (0.001, 0.012)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 173 173 173 173
time 45 (30, 57) 45 (30, 57) 45 (30, 57) 45 (30, 57)
n 23 (10, 39) 22 (10, 35) 18 (8, 31) 15 (7, 28)
post_p 0.8 (0.7, 0.96) 0.81 (0.7, 0.95) 0.81 (0.69, 0.95) 0.75 (0.64, 0.92)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.014)
Taxel_therapies count 2 2 2 2
time 45 (44, 46) 45 (44, 46) 45 (44, 46) 45 (44, 46)
n 18 (11, 25) 36 (35, 36) 21 (16, 26) 32 (30, 34)
post_p 0.68 (0.64, 0.73) 0.9 (0.84, 0.95) 0.9 (0.87, 0.93) 0.94 (0.93, 0.96)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.008, 0.009) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.007 (0.004, 0.01) 0.008 (0.004, 0.011)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2
time 34 (31, 38) 34 (31, 38) 34 (31, 38) 34 (31, 38)
n 27 (26, 28) 22 (20, 24) 23 (18, 28) 24 (20, 27)
post_p 0.71 (0.7, 0.72) 0.76 (0.74, 0.77) 0.73 (0.71, 0.76) 0.79 (0.79, 0.79)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.01, 0.016) 0.009 (0.007, 0.01) 0.014 (0.011, 0.017) 0.006 (0.004, 0.009)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 252 252 252 252
time 41 (24, 56) 41 (24, 56) 41 (24, 56) 41 (24, 56)
n 24 (10, 46) 38 (21, 76) 18 (8, 36) 13 (6, 29)
post_p 0.81 (0.71, 0.97) 0.85 (0.72, 0.98) 0.78 (0.67, 0.96) 0.74 (0.62, 0.94)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0.003, 0.014) 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Taxel_therapies count 3 3 3 3
time 34 (20, 35) 34 (20, 35) 34 (20, 35) 34 (20, 35)
n 20 (12, 35) 36 (30, 49) 10 (8, 24) 7 (4, 12)
post_p 0.78 (0.7, 0.84) 0.89 (0.77, 0.92) 0.7 (0.69, 0.72) 0.69 (0.65, 0.72)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.003, 0.014) 0.008 (0.005, 0.01) 0.011 (0.008, 0.016) 0 (0, 0.008)
Niraparib count 4 4 4 4
time 27 (22, 42) 27 (22, 42) 27 (22, 42) 27 (22, 42)
n 16 (10, 30) 28 (17, 32) 22 (12, 40) 24 (11, 34)
post_p 0.72 (0.66, 0.83) 0.72 (0.72, 0.81) 0.76 (0.68, 0.86) 0.75 (0.65, 0.84)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.01 (0.002, 0.016) 0.008 (0.002, 0.012) 0.005 (0.001, 0.012) 0.014 (0.011, 0.015)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11) 11 (11, 11)
n 29 (29, 29) 7 (7, 7) 11 (11, 11) 5 (5, 5) 3 (3, 3) 5 (5, 5) 1 (1, 1) 0 (0, 0)
post_p 0.45 (0.45, 0.45) 0.22 (0.22, 0.22) 0.32 (0.32, 0.32) 0.22 (0.22, 0.22) 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48) NA (NA, NA)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.017, 0.017) 0.053 (0.053, 0.053) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.118 (0.118, 0.118) 0.093 (0.093, 0.093) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) NA (NA, NA)
Taxel_therapies count 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202
time 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57) 41 (20, 57)
n 38 (18, 99) 16 (7, 40) 29 (17, 75) 25 (12, 54) 13 (4, 30) 11 (3, 26) 8 (2, 20) 8 (3, 22)
post_p 0.21 (0.04, 0.44) 0.3 (0.07, 0.48) 0.25 (0.04, 0.46) 0.26 (0.04, 0.47) 0.32 (0.11, 0.47) 0.36 (0.11, 0.49) 0.31 (0.12, 0.48) 0.35 (0.11, 0.47)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.029) 0.023 (0.015, 0.038) 0.021 (0.016, 0.031) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.023 (0.014, 0.041) 0.022 (0.012, 0.043) 0.024 (0.014, 0.058) 0.023 (0.014, 0.048)
Niraparib count 186 186 186 186 186 186 186 186
time 40 (20, 57) 40 (20, 57) 40 (20, 57) 40 (20, 57) 40 (20, 57) 40 (20, 57) 40 (20, 57) 40 (20, 57)
n 30 (12, 109) 11 (4, 31) 24 (9, 70) 18 (8, 46) 17 (9, 30) 16 (9, 35) 12 (7, 25) 13 (7, 28)
post_p 0.22 (0.04, 0.46) 0.3 (0.1, 0.47) 0.29 (0.05, 0.47) 0.28 (0.08, 0.46) 0.32 (0.09, 0.48) 0.29 (0.05, 0.47) 0.3 (0.08, 0.47) 0.32 (0.1, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.03) 0.023 (0.016, 0.049) 0.021 (0.015, 0.034) 0.022 (0.016, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.022 (0.014, 0.033) 0.024 (0.015, 0.041) 0.022 (0.016, 0.036)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 6 6 6 6
time 18 (16, 24) 18 (16, 24) 18 (16, 24) 18 (16, 24)
n 47 (37, 58) 9 (6, 16) 8 (6, 12) 10 (4, 14)
post_p 0.36 (0.3, 0.47) 0.44 (0.28, 0.49) 0.39 (0.27, 0.43) 0.41 (0.29, 0.45)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.015) 0.017 (0.012, 0.032) 0.026 (0.015, 0.032) 0.016 (0.004, 0.035)
Taxel_therapies count 370 370 370 370
time 33 (20, 54) 33 (20, 54) 33 (20, 54) 33 (20, 54)
n 44 (20, 118) 18 (8, 41) 13 (5, 32) 12 (4, 31)
post_p 0.22 (0.04, 0.45) 0.33 (0.09, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.47) 0.36 (0.12, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.03) 0.021 (0.013, 0.036) 0.021 (0.013, 0.041) 0.022 (0.014, 0.045)
Niraparib count 342 342 342 342
time 31 (17, 51) 31 (17, 51) 31 (17, 51) 31 (17, 51)
n 33 (13, 115) 12 (5, 36) 17 (9, 36) 17 (10, 35)
post_p 0.28 (0.05, 0.47) 0.35 (0.11, 0.47) 0.36 (0.1, 0.48) 0.34 (0.09, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.019 (0.013, 0.03) 0.022 (0.014, 0.04) 0.022 (0.014, 0.032) 0.022 (0.014, 0.034)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 5 5 5 5
time 23 (21, 35) 23 (21, 35) 23 (21, 35) 23 (21, 35)
n 48 (30, 71) 24 (19, 33) 8 (7, 16) 4 (3, 8)
post_p 0.43 (0.33, 0.47) 0.44 (0.34, 0.47) 0.34 (0.2, 0.45) 0.37 (0.17, 0.41)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.009, 0.016) 0.014 (0.009, 0.017) 0.023 (0.016, 0.036) 0.035 (0.023, 0.053)
Taxel_therapies count 329 329 329 329
time 32 (18, 53) 32 (18, 53) 32 (18, 53) 32 (18, 53)
n 32 (19, 86) 28 (15, 66) 9 (3, 25) 10 (3, 23)
post_p 0.3 (0.06, 0.47) 0.29 (0.07, 0.47) 0.34 (0.16, 0.48) 0.37 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.014, 0.028) 0.02 (0.014, 0.032) 0.023 (0.012, 0.056) 0.022 (0.011, 0.048)
Niraparib count 308 308 308 308
time 35 (20, 52) 35 (20, 52) 35 (20, 52) 35 (20, 52)
n 28 (12, 77) 22 (11, 52) 14 (7, 27) 14 (8, 29)
post_p 0.3 (0.07, 0.47) 0.31 (0.1, 0.47) 0.32 (0.1, 0.47) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.014, 0.032) 0.02 (0.015, 0.03) 0.022 (0.015, 0.039) 0.021 (0.013, 0.036)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 1 1 1 1
time 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29)
n 19 (19, 19) 17 (17, 17) 5 (5, 5) 13 (13, 13)
post_p 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.42 (0.42, 0.42) 0.26 (0.26, 0.26) 0.4 (0.4, 0.4)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.015, 0.015) 0.011 (0.011, 0.011) 0.037 (0.037, 0.037) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013)
Taxel_therapies count 167 167 167 167
time 44 (32, 57) 44 (32, 57) 44 (32, 57) 44 (32, 57)
n 18 (7, 38) 16 (6, 35) 13 (4, 28) 14 (5, 27)
post_p 0.32 (0.12, 0.46) 0.34 (0.08, 0.48) 0.36 (0.11, 0.48) 0.35 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.032) 0.021 (0.014, 0.036) 0.021 (0.014, 0.043) 0.021 (0.014, 0.04)
Niraparib count 289 289 289 289
time 34 (20, 52) 34 (20, 52) 34 (20, 52) 34 (20, 52)
n 18 (10, 34) 17 (10, 35) 14 (8, 29) 14 (8, 29)
post_p 0.34 (0.1, 0.48) 0.33 (0.08, 0.48) 0.34 (0.08, 0.48) 0.36 (0.12, 0.48)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.033) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.022 (0.013, 0.039) 0.021 (0.013, 0.035)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 6 6 6 6
time 24 (20, 34) 24 (20, 34) 24 (20, 34) 24 (20, 34)
n 14 (8, 25) 28 (20, 45) 12 (9, 27) 8 (6, 13)
post_p 0.3 (0.22, 0.47) 0.46 (0.41, 0.5) 0.39 (0.31, 0.49) 0.39 (0.19, 0.41)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.014, 0.028) 0.012 (0.008, 0.016) 0.015 (0.009, 0.026) 0.018 (0.012, 0.04)
Taxel_therapies count 297 297 297 297
time 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54) 36 (23, 54)
n 19 (9, 42) 29 (16, 64) 13 (5, 30) 10 (3, 23)
post_p 0.32 (0.07, 0.48) 0.29 (0.07, 0.47) 0.34 (0.12, 0.48) 0.36 (0.16, 0.48)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.013, 0.036) 0.021 (0.015, 0.03) 0.022 (0.014, 0.042) 0.022 (0.014, 0.046)
Niraparib count 297 297 297 297
time 36 (22, 53) 36 (22, 53) 36 (22, 53) 36 (22, 53)
n 13 (6, 37) 22 (11, 54) 18 (10, 39) 14 (7, 29)
post_p 0.33 (0.11, 0.48) 0.31 (0.08, 0.47) 0.32 (0.09, 0.48) 0.34 (0.1, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.021 (0.014, 0.033) 0.022 (0.014, 0.032) 0.021 (0.014, 0.037)